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Instead of marking a cyclical rebound, 2026 is significantly considered as a debt consolidation year, in which diversification-led development ends up being more deeply embedded in the region's economic model, lowering reliance on hydrocarbons and increasing durability to external shocks. Forecasts from significant institutions broadly converge on a stronger GCC growth profile in 2026 than in 2025, supported by durable domestic need, continued non-oil expansion, and (to differing degrees) a firmer hydrocarbon contribution.

ANSR July GCC PRs 50DR+

3.2 percent growth in 2025, accelerating to 4.5 percent in 2026. Sees momentum improving, with GCC output development projected to increase from 1.7 percent in 2024 to 3.3 percent on average in 2025, reflecting a shift toward more positive overall conditions.

The IMF's World Economic Outlook (October 2025) projects international growth easing to 3.1 percent in 2026, with sophisticated economies around 1.5 percent and emerging market and establishing economies just above 4 percent. On that comparison, a 4.44.5 percent GCC expansion would place the region materially ahead of the world average and somewhat above (or broadly in line with) the emerging-market aggregate, strengthening the GCC's status as a fairly high-growth pocketprovided that regional risk conditions remain contained and reform momentum holds.

Information from the GCC Statistical Center reveal that non-oil sectors already represent more than 73 percent of overall GDP, a share that has actually continued to increase as federal governments expand investment in services, facilities, and technology. According to Oxford Economics, non-energy activity across the GCC is forecasted to grow by around 4.1 percent in 2026, supported by strong labor markets, improving credit conditions, and rising financial investment in innovation and AI-related infrastructure.

ANSR July GCC PRs 50DR+

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Public-sector investment and reform remain central to sustaining this pattern. Policy steps focused on bring in foreign direct investment, easing foreign ownership guidelines, broadening capital markets, and supporting private-sector involvement continue to underpin non-oil growth and minimize the region's direct exposure to oil cost volatility. While hydrocarbons no longer dominate the growth outlook, oil incomes are expected to play an encouraging role in 2026.

Oxford Economics expects Brent crude rates to fall listed below USD 60 per barrel in early 2026, restricting the near-term contribution of oil extraction to GDP. Oil supply is forecast to rise once again in the second half of the year, with a full unwinding of remaining production caps most likely by mid-2027.

ANSR July GCC PRs 50DR+

Macroeconomic conditions throughout the GCC remain broadly supportive of development. Inflation is expected to remain low, with the IMF forecasting average inflation of 2 percent throughout the region in 2026. Steady rates are helping maintain genuine home incomes and underpin consumer spending, which Oxford Economics expects to grow by approximately 3.5 percent over 20262027.